Black Swans

To properly approach the Games section, you must think in a way that's unnatural for human brains.

A story might help:

Every day, the Duke looks over their estate. When they get to the lagoon they stop to appreciate their swans. Over the years, they've happily seen every ugly duckling grow up into a white swan.

This morning, based on their observations, the Duke has formulated a new law of nature:

Swans must be white.

The Duke comes to you, their trusty advisor, and asks: "Should I reveal my discovery to the world?"

What do you say?

Perhaps you're inclined to be agreeable with your boss. But remember that the Duke hates to be embarrassed. You'll lose more than your job if you agree with them now and they're later proven wrong.

But if you're going to be critical you must also be careful and respectful. You can't simply say "pshaw" to the Duke. You must prove your case methodically.

Now, think fast! There is a correct move here.

Would it be wiser for you to take a critical or an agreeable stance?

Be critical!

Consider: what would it take to prove the Duke correct?

To be agreeable, you'd need to definitively prove that all swans are white. To do that, you'd have find every single swan that has or will ever exist. On that journey, you might find millions of white swans. But as soon as you find a single black swan, it's all over. One non-white swan and the Duke is proved wrong. So, in this case, being agreeable sets you up for hard work that was unlikely to succeed.

It would have been more efficient if you'd went looking for a black swan (or a grey or blue or pink swan or any non-white swan). You should have been critical.

Later that afternoon, chastened by your wise disproof of their absolute claim about swans, the Duke proposes a new law of nature based on their lagoon observations:

Ducks can be green.

Again, think fast! Should you be critical or agreeable?

Be agreeable!

Perhaps you thought this time the Duke was trying to make a fool out of you, to see if you'd agree to a ridiculous claim. You've seen brown ducks, but green ones?? Being critical worked well last time. Why not try again?

You should not be critical because, in this case, the Duke has taken a secure position.

Consider: what would it take to prove the Duke wrong?

You couldn't just find those brown ducks you saw before. Just because a duck CAN BE brown doesn't mean it CAN'T BE green. This time, being critical would require finding all the ducks and making sure they aren't green.

So this time, it is wiser to be agreeable. Go over to the lagoon and check. As soon as you find one green duck, you can safely confirm that the Duke is correct.

So what's the difference between these two theories?

When the Duke says something MUST BE the case, it's easier to be critical.

When the Duke says something COULD BE the case, it's easier to be agreeable.

Quiz yourself. What should you do when...

They say it MUST BE TRUE that swans are white?

Disprove them by finding a non-white swan.

They say it COULD BE FALSE that ducks are brown?

Find a non-brown duck to prove them correct.

They say it MUST BE FALSE that swans are black?

Disprove them by finding a black swan.

They say it COULD BE TRUE that ducks are green?

Find a green duck to prove them correct.